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Why home ground advantage matters more than ever in week one

FOUR finals in four different cities, involving teams from different states. 

For the first since the McIntyre final eight system was introduced in 1994, the first week of the finals will involve a different bracket to what we’ve seen before.

It’s not the first time four states have hosted games on the opening weekend of September – it happened last year and has happened five times in the past 30 years – but it is the first time each match-up involves teams from different states.

This finals series starts at the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night, then Friday night at the MCG, before Saturday includes a game at Engie Stadium and Optus Stadium.

Home ground advantage is real this weekend.

In qualifying finals since 1994, the home team has won 35 of 47 matches against interstate teams, although Geelong went to Adelaide last year and smashed Port Adelaide.

In elimination finals in that time, the home team has won 26 of 39 fixtures, including Brisbane over Carlton at the Gabba 12 months ago.

HOME FINAL v INTERSTATE TEAM – SINCE 1994
FINALS MATCH MATCHES HOME TEAM WINS HOME TEAM LOSSES WIN RATE
Qualifying Final 47 35 12 74.5%
Elimination Final 39 26 13 66.7%
Semi Final 51 37 14 72.5%
Preliminary Final 43 28 15 65.1%
All Finals (excluding Grand Final) 180 126 54 70.0%

Home advantage peaks in qualifying finals at 74.5 per cent, while it is also above 70 per cent in semi-finals, where those who lose week one get a second chance.

Preliminary final advantage is the lowest, although Brisbane got the job done on the road against Geelong last September.

Cam Rayner celebrates a goal during Brisbane’s preliminary final against Geelong on September 21, 2024. Picture: Getty Images

Since 1994, the benefit of a home final against an interstate team has resulted in a winning percentage of exactly 70 per cent across 180 finals, not including Grand Finals.

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