LAST year, just six wins and a decent percentage was all it took to make the AFLW top eight.

But this year, with an extra game and evenness across the competition, it’s a bit more complicated.

We can all expect that North Melbourne, Melbourne, Hawthorn and now even Carlton are locks for finals. Whether the Blues can hold onto their spot in the top four remains to be seen, but the fact we’ll see them in November seems to be inevitable as long as they win at least one more game.

However, the middle rung of clubs is as close as ever, with last weekend proving that the rest of the eight is far from settled. One loss from Adelaide has seen it falling out of the top four to seventh, while Sydney’s recent defeat has had it tumbling out of the eight all together.

At present, it’s predicted that to guarantee finals at least seven wins are required. However, there is a world where it can be done with just six, if there’s a couple of upsets and a commanding percentage involved.

Below we take a look at the clubs who are still in with a chance for finals, and the ones who are going to need to fight tooth and nail to hold their position.

5th – Brisbane (5-3, 153.5 per cent)

Upcoming games: Port Adelaide, Essendon, Melbourne, Collingwood

Although sitting fifth, Brisbane isn’t quite a finals guarantee yet, as it shares the same number of points as the rest of the teams that round out the eight. However, with the better percentage to its advantage, and arguably the easiest run home of the lot, it is in the best position for a typical November feature.

As it stands, the Lions will only face one team in the top eight (Melbourne), and if they beat each team that’s below them on the ladder, they could rack up another 12 points, having them finish the season at the fifth or above mark, give or take where Carlton and Hawthorn end up.

6th – West Coast (5-3, 126.6 per cent)

Upcoming games: Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney, Carlton

On the other side of the spectrum, Daisy Pearce’s West Coast is facing one of the toughest runs home of all the clubs in contention. It will need to take on two teams currently in the top eight (Adelaide and Carlton) but also faces Sydney and Geelong who are banging on the door themselves.

To make a convincing case for a finals appearances, the Eagles will want to win at least two of their upcoming four matches, but could do it with just one, if there’s some losses from other teams along the way. As it stands, they haven’t lost at Mineral Resources Park all year, so their home games against Carlton and Geelong could be the key to securing a finals spot.

7th – Adelaide (5-3, 125.3 per cent)

Upcoming games: West Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Fremantle

North Melbourne aside, the Crows’ remaining games are all very winnable. Except that’s what we all said ahead of them facing Richmond, and we saw how that turned out. For the first time in a long time, Adelaide is gettable, and it has shown this all year.

As it sits seventh, it will also want to win at least two of its remaining games to secure a spot in the top eight. Defeating the Eagles is possible, and Port Adelaide and Fremantle are likely. We also wouldn’t put it past Adelaide to be the ones to finally knock North Melbourne off its unbeaten streak. But we’ll need to see a very different Crows to what we saw over the weekend, if they want to make sure coach Matthew Clarke’s final year doesn’t end in a month’s time.

8th – St Kilda (5-3, 98.3 per cent)

Upcoming games: Collingwood, Carlton, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs 

Nobody predicted this, but the Saints might make their first finals appearance since their inclusion in the AFLW.

As it stands, they’re on a four-game winning streak, which is notably the longest current streak behind the anomaly that is North Melbourne. But it’s not an easy run home, as they have Collingwood this week who have defeated the Swans and rattled both Melbourne and Hawthorn.

The Saints will also face a sharp-looking Carlton, and the goliath that is North Melbourne which is shown to be unbeatable, before rounding out their season with the Western Bulldogs. To make the eight without worrying about percentage, they’ll want to win two of their upcoming games, with Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs on their home deck of RSEA Park their best bets.

9th – Sydney (4-4, 108 per cent)

Upcoming games: Carlton, Melbourne, West Coast, Essendon

After a red-hot start, the Swans have unfortunately let themselves down with a couple of unexpected losses putting them in a tricky position to claw their way back into the eight.

The Swans’ next two matches are enviable by no one. Carlton is on a roll as it prepares to play its first finals series since Mathew Buck stepped in as coach, while Melbourne is back to its best. They’ll round out their season with home games against West Coast and Essendon, but they’ll want percentage-boosting victories in both, and hope for a few losses from other teams if they want to make the eight with just six wins.

10th – Geelong (3-5, 91.1 per cent)

Upcoming games: Greater Western Sydney, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne

If winning seven games is the safe formula to make the eight, Geelong (and the below contenders) can’t be mucking around as it will have to win the rest of its games this season.

The Cats’ run home isn’t disastrous as they have achievable four-point chances coming up with GWS at home, followed by West Coast and the Western Bulldogs. Their greatest challenge, if not against West Coast in round 10, will come in the form of the Dees at home, but if they’re three on the trot by that point, what’s one more?

11th – Port Adelaide (3-5, 90.3 per cent)

Upcoming games: Brisbane, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney

There’s been a lot to like about Port Adelaide, but there’s been a few games it is going to regret. With minor losses to St Kilda and Geelong in the last month, the Power have made it hard for themselves to feature in back-to-back finals series.

They’ll have a tough season-ender, with their next three opponents (Brisbane, Hawthorn and Adelaide) currently sitting within in the top eight and all have intentions of staying there. They’ll wrap up their season with an away game against GWS, but if they can’t win the three matches before, it won’t mean much come round 12.

12th – Essendon (3-5, 72.8 per cent)

Upcoming games: Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Sydney

It’s been a tough run for Essendon this past month, as it is currently on a five-game losing streak after its surprising start had it 3-0. But it’s not all doom and gloom for the Dons, who, despite their adversity with injury and a string of losses, haven’t looked too far off the pace.

They kept North Melbourne scoreless in the first quarter of their hitout in round seven and brought their A-game to Melbourne last week, conceding just 36 points to the Dees whose average score before that had been 65 this year.

However, it will be a challenging comeback for the Bombers, who will need to win all of their remaining games to make the eight, which include two opponents already there (Brisbane and Hawthorn), and two who want to be (Sydney and the Western Bulldogs).

13th – Fremantle (3-5, 64 per cent)

Upcoming games: Melbourne, Greater Western Sydney, Richmond, Adelaide

The Dockers have one of the most unfavourable percentages in the competition this year, thanks to their 100-point thrashing to North Melbourne earlier in the year. To save their season and not worry about that pesky number, they’ll need to win every one of their upcoming games to make finals.

Unfortunately for them, they do have two sides currently sitting in the eight to face in Melbourne and Adelaide, plus GWS and Richmond who have known to surprise at various times this year. It’s not mathematically impossible Dockers fans, so don’t put a line through your season yet! But keep an eye on them this weekend, the home match against the Dees could make or break them.