SYDNEY will likely miss the top eight for just the third time in 16 years, but over the past month, the Swans have played like finalists.
Wins over Port Adelaide, Fremantle and St Kilda since the mid-season bye, which was only offset by a narrow loss to the Western Bulldogs, has the Swans three games plus percentage outside the eight with six matches to go.
There’s the faintest of pulses and it’s little surprise the 3-1 run has coincided with the return of Errol Gulden from a serious ankle injury the suffered during the pre-season.
Gulden’s numbers alone are excellent – 24 disposals and six tackles a game, along with two goals – and others have followed.
Errol Gulden celebrates a goal for Sydney against St Kilda in R18, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
Brodie Grundy was already on the rise pre-bye and has been the highest rated player on the ground in Sydney’s past three wins.
Jake Lloyd (up 5.6 Rating Points a game after shifting into the forward line), Will Hayward (up 4.2) and James Jordon (up 2.5) have also jumped in the past month.
But how have the Swans done it collectively?
Statistics from Champion Data show most of the improvement is coming from better efficiency at stoppages.
| Swans Stoppage Game Improvement | ||
| R0-13 | R15-18 | |
| Clearance Differential | 7th | 5th |
| Points from Clearance Differential | 13th | 2nd |
| Clearance to Score | 17th | 2nd |
Although it’s not the greatest indicator of prolonged success, the improvement has been stark.
Sydney is ranked second in points from clearance differential and second from clearance to score over the past month and they are also winning the ball more, jumping from 13th for contested possession differential over the first 13 matches to fourth in the past month.
Despite injuries to their key forwards, the efficiency inside 50 has also made a huge difference. Although the raw number of entries is down, the scores per entry has gone from second last to fifth.
| Swans Forward 50 Efficiency Improvement | ||
| R0-13 | R15-18 | |
| Inside 50s | 7th | 11th |
| Score per Inside 50 | 17th | 5th |
| Shot at Goal Accuracy | 16th | 9th |
And with accuracy going from 16th to nine, the Swans are also making better use of their shots.
It’s only a four-week sample, but the improved efficiency will give coach Dean Cox plenty to work with ahead of what could be another assault on a top-eight finish in 2026.
In the short term, it will be enough to have Greater Western Sydney, Brisbane and Geelong – who the Swans all face in the run to September – on high alert.
