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The games that will shape the top eight

WITH just three weeks remaining of the home and away season, things are starting to heat up.

North Melbourne has cemented its status as the premiership favourite, but there’s a bit of a ladder logjam after that.

Hawthorn and Melbourne have had their moments and are well placed to attack the back end of the year, while Brisbane and Adelaide are also dangerous on their day.

Don’t write off the exciting Swans either, and could one of the Saints or Eagles make a splash, if they get there?

We take a look at 10 matches that will shape the finals race in the final three weeks of the season.

ROUND 10

West Coast v Geelong
Friday October 17 at Sullivan Logistics Park, 6.15pm AWST

In the corresponding fixture last year, Geelong spearhead Aisling Moloney booted six majors to lead the Cats to a comprehensive 33-point victory. But since then, the Eagles have been on the up and they’re eyeing off a finals campaign under Daisy Pearce. The Cats are currently a win and percentage out of the eight, so a victory over the Eagles would have huge ramifications on the top eight mix.

Melbourne v Sydney
Saturday October 18 at Casey Fields, 1.05pm AEDT

The Dees have bounced back in 2025 after narrowly missing out on finals action last year. Mick Stinear’s side are sitting pretty in third on the ladder with a win-loss record of 7-2, but face a tricky task against a dangerous Sydney outfit this weekend. The Swans snapped a four-match losing streak in fine fashion against the Blues in round nine, with Montana Ham and Laura Gardiner leading from the front. Melbourne’s Tayla Harris and Georgia Gall both looked worse for wear after incidents against the Dockers in round nine, which could make the Demons’ job that little bit trickier if the duo are ruled out.

North Melbourne v Adelaide
Saturday October 18 at Arden Street Oval, 3.05pm AEDT

Could the Crows be the first side to take down the Roos? Darren Crocker’s side have looked almost invincible this season, but the Crows are one of the clubs that are best positioned to try and spoil their incredible winning streak. The Roos have already locked themselves into finals and will likely finish on top of the ladder, but the Crows are in a tense battle for a top four spot. Jasmine Garner, Ash Riddell and Blaithin Bogue are box office viewing, but so are Ebony Marinoff, Danielle Ponter and Maddi Newman.

Danielle Ponter and Ebony Marinoff celebrate a goal during the match between Adelaide and North Melbourne at Norwood Oval in round nine, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

Carlton v St Kilda
Saturday October 18 at Ikon Park, 7.15pm AEDT

St Kilda are on the verge of an elusive finals campaign, but first it’s got to get through the Blues on Saturday night. The Saints have won five matches in a row and Nick Dal Santo’s side is absolutely humming, while the Blues have arguably been the biggest improvers in 2025 but were found out by the Swans in round nine. Carlton has been rejuvenated under new captain Abbie McKay, and youngsters Sophie McKay and Poppy Scholz have fit into the system seamlessly. The Saints have made their run in the face of adversity, with plenty of injury troubles down at Moorabbin. The likes of Liv Vesely, Ash Richards, Molly McDonald and Bianca Jakobsson have all spent significant chunks of the season on the sidelines, which has meant others have had to step up in their absence. Jesse Wardlaw is in some great form, Tyanna Smith is putting together a consistent campaign and Georgia Patrikios has also had some really good performances.

Abbie McKay and Sophie McKay after Carlton’s win over the Western Bulldogs at Ikon Park in round four, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

ROUND 11

Sydney v West Coast
Saturday October 25 at Henson Park, 1.05pm AEDT

The Swans made it pretty clear in pre-season that they had high ambitions for this campaign, but sitting in ninth spot on the ladder, there’s now little room for error. There are no easy wins in their final three games, which means every result has plenty of finals ramifications. The Eagles are in a similar boat with their remaining fixtures, which means this clash is well and truly an ‘eight-point game’. Chloe Molloy has had a fantastic season and is leading from the front alongside Lucy McEvoy for the Swans, while the Eagles are continuing their upwards trajectory under Daisy Pearce and their new captains Bella Lewis and Charlie Thomas.

Isabella Lewis and Ella Roberts celebrate a goal during the match between Waalitj Marawar (West Coast) and Yartapuulti (Port Adelaide) at Mineral Resources Park in round four, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Brisbane v Melbourne
Saturday October 25 at Brighton Homes Arena, 6.15pm AEST

This looms as a genuine top-four clash between two competition heavyweights. The Lions have won the past two encounters between the two sides, with Ally Anderson (43 disposals) and Dakota Davidson (three goals) both influential the last time they played. The Lions are yet to hit their straps this season but have now won four in a row, so are peaking at the right time. The Dees have been very promising throughout their campaign, but a shock loss to the Dockers in round nine and some injury troubles makes them vulnerable.

Ally Anderson in action during the match between Melbourne and Brisbane at Casey Fields in round two, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

ROUND 12

Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Friday October 31 at Kinetic Stadium, 7.15pm AEDT

Friday night footy in Frankston. This blockbuster clash, which could genuinely be 1v2 by the time it rolls around, will be a must-watch. The Hawks have had their fair share of injury dramas this year, but through both grit and flair have come out the other side well placed. There’s not much that hasn’t already been said about the Roos and their form. Keep an eye on some of the game’s best Irish players as well in this one. Blaithin Bogue, Vikki Wall and Erika O’Shea will front up for the Roos, while the Hawks’ Aine McDonagh and Aileen Gilroy are excitement machines.

Aileen Gilroy (left) and Aine McDonagh sing the team song after Hawthorn’s win over Richmond in week 10, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

West Coast v Carlton
Friday October 31 at Sullivan Logistics Park, 6.15pm AWST

The Eagles could clinch a maiden finals berth, while the Blues could put an exclamation mark on their big rise in 2025. Can Ella Roberts lift her Eagles to finals action, or will Mimi Hill’s Blues put themselves in the mix as a finals wildcard? There will be plenty of young talent on show as well to keep your eye on. Jess Rentsch has become a force to be reckoned with around the ball for the Eagles, while Keeley Sherar is a star for the Baggers. Blues duo Erone Fitzpatrick and Dayna Finn have taken their game to another level this year, too.

Mimi Hill celebrates during the AFLW Round 8 match between Geelong and Carlton at GMHBA Stadium, October 5, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Geelong v Melbourne
Saturday November 1 at GMHBA Stadium, 7.15pm AEDT

If the Cats can get through the Eagles and Bulldogs, then there’s a very real chance that a showdown with the Dees could be do-or-die for a finals berth. Dan Lowther’s side were so close, yet so far last year and risk going the same way if they can’t cobble together some form in the final few weeks of the year. As it stands, Melbourne is pushing towards a top four place and double chance, but if it drops a game or two against Sydney or Brisbane, then all of a sudden the Demons are battling for a home final.

Nina Morrison fends off Ryleigh Wotherspoon during the match between Geelong and Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium in round one, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

Adelaide v Fremantle
Sunday November 2 at Norwood Oval, 4.35pm ACDT

The final match of the home and away season – the Crows could be fighting for the top four, while the Dockers could be a very outside chance of making the finals. Fremantle’s problem at the moment is its abysmal percentage, only 68.1 per cent. However, if the Dockers can beat both the Giants and Tigers, you never know? Adelaide’s premiership chances would be far stronger with a double chance rather than a cut-throat final.

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