Second-half shockers: The stark numbers behind Dees, Blues fadeouts

THEY are the second-half shockers so far of 2025. But are Carlton and Melbourne victims of their own making? And can they be fixed? 

The contested style deployed so successfully by Melbourne on the way to its 2021 premiership, and followed by the Blues en route to back-to-back finals appearances, has quickly been overtaken in the competition by the focus on ball movement.

Neither club is managing to strike that balance and as games go longer, their contested styles are being overrun. Opposition midfields know that if they can match their contest work for a fair portion of the game, they will be able to break them with their run and ball movement later on. It is footy’s version of rope-a-dope – and Carlton and Melbourne aren’t throwing any late punches.

Carlton’s numbers are particularly stark. The Blues rank sixth in the League for their first half points differential (+52) but are second last for second half points (-110).

Across the Blues’ first four games, Champion Data shows Carlton has had huge drop-offs after the main break in pressure differential (ranked eighth to half-time and 18th in second halves), contested possession differentials (fourth to eighth), defensive 50 to inside 50 percentage (fifth to 18th), inside 50 differential (second to 11th) and scores against per inside 50 (first to 10th).

In an era when physical conditioning teams are doing relatively the same things across the competition, pointing the finger at the Blues’ fitness is not viewed as the issue. The wear and tear of their game style, however, is proving unsustainable.

The Blues have recorded the highest contested possession rate of any side and applied the most pressure but also received the most pressure. Champion Data shows their matches have an average pressure rating of 191, with the AFL average at 180 this season.

Under the previous three seasons under coach Michael Voss, the data showed Carlton’s ball movement and territory game fell away after half-time, but their contest and defence still held up. Between 2022-24, the Blues ranked seventh in points differential in first halves and ninth in second halves. Any shift was marginal.

The contested load is coming undone this year, though, and was again exposed by Collingwood in last week’s five-goal-to-two second half win at the MCG.

Melbourne’s malaise has been more overt in final quarters.

The Dees have lost every last quarter this year and rank last in the AFL for their fourth-quarter points differential (-102 points). Unlike Carlton, who have been steady earlier in games before falling away, Melbourne hasn’t had the same dramatic fall away. But losing the last quarter by twice the amount of their poor first three quarters across the year is concerning for coach Simon Goodwin.

The Dees have been deploying a different lead-in to games than many clubs, holding a main training session two days out from matches, then a captain’s run the day before games. Across the competition most clubs hold their main training session, then have a day off, then their captain’s run the day before matches.

All factors will be looked at as they try to solve their frayed final terms, but again, as rivals play the minutes, they are looking at Melbourne’s competitive, contest method and believing they will be able to be overtaken as the game wears on.

Carlton and Melbourne’s fadeouts