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Fantasy stocktake: Who to buy and sell ahead of R4

BAD NEWS highlighted round three with popular youngster Xavier Lindsay (MID, $459,000) going down with a knee complaint on 12, a figure he reached in the first two minutes of the game. He started the game at half-back and looked in for a huge day in that role.

Coaches will need to keep a close eye on him, thankfully he has been cleared of serious damage, although he is unlikely this week. Upon return, he will still have a breakeven (BE) of just 37 given his outstanding start to the year.

Tom Liberatore (MID, $989,000) continued to stand up in the absence of his skipper and he has become an early trade target as a result according to the Coaches Choice statistics. He knocked up his third 100 on the trot with a season-high 142 on the back of 30 disposals, six marks, a goal and an impressive 11 tackles.

While talking Dogs, mature-age rookie, ‘The Doc’ Sam Davidson (FWD, $412,000), was the fifth highest scoring player of the round after giving the Blues a lesson in how to dominate from the wing. He put an extra 60 points on his previous season high with a whopping 125 from 31 disposals and 10 marks which leaves him with a BE of -39 on the back of a $110k weekly price rise.

On the flipside, coaches are getting an itchy trade finger on Jason Horne-Francis (MID/FWD, $840,000) who hasn’t lived up to his pre-season hype. The popular forward selection was expected to take full advantage of his soft early draw, especially in the absence of Zak Butters but he has yet to fire with an average of 73 and BE of 112 after dropping $79k after three games.

 

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MOST TRADED OUT

  • Xavier Lindsay (MID, $459,000)
  • Will Day, (MID, $844,000)
  • Jason Horne-Francis (MID/FWD, $840,000)
  • Lucas Camporeale (MID, $309,000)
  • Ryley Sanders (MID/FWD, $671,000)

TOP FIVE PRICE RISES

  • Sam Davidson (FWD, $412,000) +$110,000
  • Caleb Daniel (MID/FWD, $711,000) +$91,000
  • Max Hall (MID/FWD, 416,000) +$81,000
  • Jack Macrae (FWD, $924,000) +$78,000
  • Christian Moraes (MID, $338,000) +$78,000

TOP FIVE PRICE FALLS

  • Kai Lohmann (FWD, $489,000) -$74,000
  • Callan Ward (MID, $670,000) -$66,000
  • Kieren Briggs (RUCK, $807,000) -$63,000
  • Mark Keane (DEF, $564,000) -$60,000
  • Brent Daniels (FWD, $773,000) -$59,000

LOWEST BREAKEVENS

  • Sam Davidson (FWD, $412,000) -39
  • Christian Moraes (MID, $338,000) -27
  • Max Hall (MID/FWD, $416,000) -16
  • Zach Reid (DEF, $381,000) -13
  • Dan Curtin (FWD, $398,000) -6

Sam Davidson handballs during the Western Bulldogs’ clash against Carlton in round three, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

HIGHEST BREAKEVENS

  • Tristan Xerri (RUCK, $1,112,000) 152
  • Max Gawn (RUCK, $1,062,000) 149
  • Nic Martin (DEF, $1,002,000) 144
  • Tom Stewart (DEF, $833,000) 142
  • Harry Sheezel (DEF, $1,101,000) 138

STOCKS UP

Izak Rankine (FWD, $865,000)
The 24-year-old has hit the season running and still comes in at a bargain price due to the luxury rest he received two weeks ago. He is coming off another stellar performance where he collected 30 disposals and took five marks, while laying five tackles for a score of 116. He has a BE of just 70 heading into decent match-ups for mids against the Suns and Cats.

Nick Daicos (MID, $1,008,000)
Many coaches pencilled in plans to get the superstar this round once they saw the Pies fixture. The bonus is he comes at a discounted price from the start of the year having dropped $66k while averaging 97. Leading into his bye he was in hot form with a season-high 136 from 39 disposals, seven marks and four tackles. He has a BE of 99 and carries a slight flag with possible George Hewett and James Jordon tags in the next two weeks.

Nick Daicos in action during Collingwood’s clash against Port Adelaide in round one, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Bailey Smith (MID/FWD, $730,000)
If you were in the boat that jumped off the prized Cats recruit on the back of missing round two with a calf complaint, get back on as soon as possible. In a tough match-up with the Lions, Smith had 25 disposals and an impressive 11 tackles on his way to 112 which leaves him with a BE of 15 heading into a nice match-up with the Dees at the Cattery.

Christian Moraes (MID, $338,000)
The 18-year-old made a nice debut in round two with a 60 from just 65 per cent game time after being introduced as the substitute, before being unleashed for a full game against the Bombers in round three where he didn’t disappoint. He collected 27 disposals, seven marks and laid one tackle for a score of 93 which gives him a BE of -27 which makes him a priority cash cow.

Riley Bice (DEF, 280,000)
Prior to the week off, the mature-age recruit showed his worth with a great performance against the Dockers where he had 14 disposals, three marks, four tackles and an important goal for 64. He not only showed he is capable at the level, he was great which is a good sign for his job security moving forward. He has a BE of -3 and should put in a decent performance against the Roos.

Riley Bice during the round one match between Sydney and Brisbane at the SCG, March 15, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

STOCKS DOWN

Will Day (MID, $844,000)
After scoring an impressive 129 in Opening Round, many coaches saw dollar signs and started him in round one. Unfortunately, the cash grab hasn’t been what was needed to make it a successful campaign, increasing by just $84k while averaging 78 points per week to our score. On a positive note for anyone who holds, apart from a game against the Power in round five, he has the best five-week run in footy as far as match-ups for midfielders are concerned.

Jason Horne-Francis (MID/FWD, $840,000)
After projecting a triple-figure average for JHF over the first three weeks, I was a lazy 27 points off the mark… He looks a shadow of what he promised in the pre-season and his BE of 112 reflects that. He has a nice match-up at home against the Saints this week but it gets tough after that with games against the Hawks and Swans.

Sam De Koning (DEF, $697,000)
The defender-turned-ruck has been a nice cash play but the points have dried up fast and he needs to become a trade priority. After scores of 72 and 66 in his last two, with a red vest in his most recent, his BE has crept up to 54 which will slow his cash generation, especially considering the Cats face big Max this week and it’s hard to imagine a world where they don’t bring in a recognised ruck to at least minimise the demolition.

Sam De Koning during the round three match between Brisbane and Geelong at the Gabba, March 29, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Ollie Hollands (MID, $616,000)
Despite a shocking start to the season, at least there was hope of some added flexibility when DPP rolls out. Well, the chances of that occurring decreased against the Dogs when the 21-year-old found himself back on a wing. One thing that remains the same however was his scoring, racking up 12 disposals and 52, just four clear of last week’s total. He now has a BE of 78, a total he hasn’t reached so far this season.

Nic Martin (DEF, $1,002,000)
The Bombers running machine has come off a couple of quiet weeks which has led to a number of coaches jumping off. The lack of half-back time has made a huge dent in his number the past two weeks with scores of 72 and 73 making his million-dollar price tag unjustifiable to carry. He has a BE of 144 heading into the bye, providing a great opportunity to jump off.

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