IT WOULD feel like Groundhog Day at Princes Park.
Once again, Carlton heads into its bye week in a fractious position. At 4-7, with worrisome questions cropping up about game plan, injuries, list calls and squad depth, the Blues can sense their September dreams slipping away. Doubts around the premiership window slamming shut continue to linger.
Carlton has been here before. There was the final month fadeout in 2022, the slow start to 2023, and the second-half disaster that unfolded in 2024. How the Blues now navigate this year’s issues will be a fork-in-the-road moment.
As coach Michael Voss and co head into the mid-season bye, AFL.com.au looks at the five most pressing issues at Ikon Park and analyses whether the Blues’ woes could prove fatal.
The Wright time for change
Carlton is preparing for the Graham Wright era. Many at the Blues are expecting that to be accompanied by a newfound sense of ruthlessness. AFL.com.au revealed earlier this month that Wright would be taking a more hands-on approach to the chief executive role he’s in the midst of inheriting through the second half of the season. Given his history at Brisbane, Hawthorn and Collingwood, expect that to be followed by change. Wright was a crucial part of Hawthorn’s list management team that built the squad for three straight flags between 2013-15. He joined Collingwood in 2021 and immediately tried to poach Sam Mitchell as Nathan Buckley’s replacement. When that audacious bid failed, he led the process to eventually hire premiership-winning boss Craig McRae. He was also influential in a series of list management calls, notably the decision to trade out Brodie Grundy and bring in the likes of Bobby Hill, Dan McStay and Tom Mitchell. What that means for Carlton remains to be seen. Clearly, there will be discussion around the future of coach Michael Voss and football boss Brad Lloyd if the side misses finals later this year. Voss, who is contracted for 2026, has overseen a 41-36-1 record at Ikon Park. Lloyd, football boss since mid-2018, is working with his third coach after previously being at the helm alongside Brendon Bolton and David Teague. There’s no doubt Wright, the incoming CEO, will shape the look of the club’s immediate future.
No team flirts with the prospect of being a good side quite like Carlton. How it can dismantle Geelong one week, then lose by 10 goals to Adelaide the next, boggles the mind. As does the way the Blues can completely control games, only to cough up significant statistical advantages. In games against Richmond, the Western Bulldogs, Sydney and Greater Western Sydney this year, Carlton has a cumulative inside-50 differential of +42. Somehow, though, the Blues have lost all four games. Win those games, as the club perhaps should have, and its record is suddenly 8-3, top four is on the agenda and everything seems rosy again. It raises questions around the side’s method, scoring profile and ball movement. In the modern game, where profiting from turnover is more important than ever, Carlton ranks second-last in the League for cashing in an intercept for a score. The Blues also rank third for inside 50s, yet 11th for scoring. They rank first for kicks inside 50, yet second-last for marks taken from those kicks inside 50. They’re dead last for scores per inside 50. Whether it’s the model, the execution, or both, it’s simply not good enough for a side that should be playing finals.
Michael Voss during the R11 match between Carlton and GWS at Marvel Stadium on May 24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
Do you pay TDK?
It’s the question that could cost Carlton close to $8 million, or one of the club’s best players in Tom De Koning. As revealed by AFL.com.au, the Blues have tabled free agent De Koning a seven-year deal to stay at the club worth around $1.1 million per season. The ruck, though, has an offer to join St Kilda that’s valued significantly higher at around $1.7 million per season. De Koning has been Carlton’s third highest-rated player this year, behind only George Hewett and Patrick Cripps, with his influence undeniable. Clearly, the Blues are desperate and determined for De Koning to stay. But there is an argument to be made around whether any ruck, even one as good as De Koning, is worth such an investment. The Blues would be guaranteed to land ‘Band 1’ compensation should De Koning leave, a valuable asset given the side doesn’t currently have a first-round pick in this year’s draft. With that currently looking like a top-eight selection, plus an additional $1 million to play with courtesy of what would be an unused ‘TDK Fund’, Carlton could get aggressive in the trade and free agency space should he leave. It has already been linked with Port Adelaide’s Miles Bergman as a potential option, while additional cap room could also prove crucial in holding off the expected rival bids for 2026 free agent Sam Walsh throughout next season as well. There is, therefore, a world in which the Blues can turn the De Koning dilemma into a win-win situation regardless of whether the athletic big man opts to stay or go.
Rowan Marshall and Tom De Koning in a ruck battle during the match between Carlton and St Kilda in R9, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
Tick tock for the list
Do you stick or twist with this list? Carlton has the eighth-oldest squad in the competition this season. Of those that are older, five are genuine flag contenders (Collingwood, Brisbane, the Western Bulldogs, Geelong and Adelaide), one has played in two of the last three Grand Finals (Sydney), and the other has won five of its last six games (Melbourne). The Blues, though, are in no-man’s land and haven’t been able to blood any top-end young talent in recent years. Of the seven new Blues to have debuted across the last two years, Ashton Moir – at pick No.29 – is the highest draft selection. The rest is made up of Jaxon Binns (pick No.32), Harry O’Farrell (pick No.40), Lucas Camporeale (pick No.54), Cooper Lord (rookie), Will White (rookie) and Matt Carroll (rookie). The youthful revolution is coming, though. Last year’s No.3 pick, Jagga Smith, was a guaranteed starter this year if not for an ACL injury. Another top-10 selection could arrive via free agency compensation if Tom De Koning departs. Harry Dean, the son of 248-gamer Peter, is shaping like a first-round pick. Next Generation Academy member Jack Ison is also developing well. Cody Walker, the son of 202-gamer Andrew, could be the No.1 selection in 2026. But should, and will, it come at the expense of veteran talent? The likes of Sam Docherty, Mitch McGovern, Nic Newman and Nick Haynes, all the wrong side of 30, are all uncontracted at season’s end. Whether they earn new deals could be telling for the short-term direction of the football club.
Fix the fadeouts
Are the second-half collapses a result of fitness issues, or the side simply being worked out and navigated by opposition teams? Carlton is 9-2 in first halves this season, completely belying the side’s 4-7 record. If you take out crushing wins over lowly duo West Coast and North Melbourne, the team is cumulatively +49 in first halves this year. In second halves, though, that cumulative score drops to a staggering -178. The Blues have continually stressed their belief the fadeouts aren’t fitness-related, following a summer overhaul of the high-performance staff led by the departure of long-time boss Andrew Russell and the arrival of former Richmond and Sydney guru Rob Inness. But, while it hasn’t yet reached the disastrous levels of 2024 just yet, when Carlton had more than 40 per cent of its group on the injury list – sometimes leaving coach Michael Voss forced to pick 26-man squads from just 28 available players – this year has still seen a familiar theme emerge at Ikon Park. A fortnight ago, the injury list swelled to 12 and included senior regulars like Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Lachie Fogarty, Zac Williams, Blake Acres, Nic Newman, Matt Cottrell, Lachie Cowan and Brodie Kemp, as well as promising first-year talent Jagga Smith. It has followed a summer where star duo Sam Walsh and Charlie Curnow were forced from the track for much of pre-season, Walsh battling a hamstring injury and Curnow having had ankle and knee surgery. The Blues simply need more soldiers out on the park at more times to gain some consistency.
