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Bolter with 1.5xG looms large in tightest Golden Boot race in years: Contenders analysed

The finish line ison the horizon, which means the Golden Boot race is heating up in the Isuzu UTE A-League. aleagues.com.au looks at the numbers behind the pursuit to finish top of the goalscoring charts.

Who will win the 2024-25 Isuzu UTE A-League Golden Boot?

If it’s anything like the season we are having, there are going to be more twists and turns with the Finals Series on the horizon.
Name Games played Goals xG Assists Mins/Goal Shot Conversion rate (excl. blocks)
Noah Botic 19 10 7.5 4 129.6 33.3
Joe Lolley 17 9 7.0 6 158 20
Archie Goodwin 18 8 8.6 0 126 29.6
Adrian Segecic 17 8 3.9 2 105.6 33.3
Nicolas Milanovic 18 8 5.0 4 174 20.5
Hiroshi Ibusuki 19 8 9.5 1 194.3 20.5
Patryk Klimala 17 8 8.2 2 171.3 20
Neyder Moreno 16 7 1.5 2 109.1 35
Adam Taggart 19 7 5.97 3 237.9 13.7
Logan Rogerson 18 7 4.78 1 170 36.8
Guillermo May 18 7 7.25 2 224.1 15.2
Kosta Barbarouses 18 7 5.61 0 228.1 28
Zac Sapsford 18 7 8.55 3 156.6 16.7

Noah Botic (Western United)

Western United star Noah Botic, as it stands, is the player to beat and on track to dethrone reigning Golden Boot winner and Perth Glory captain Adam Taggart, heading into Round 22.

It has been a career season for Botic, who has scored 10 goals so far to further enhance his chances of a maiden Subway Socceroos call-up for this month’s 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup qualifiers.

The 23-year-old striker, who has scored eight goals from an Expected Goals (xG) of 7.5, leads the competition in big chances converted (eight).

He also has the most goals from open play, level with fellow Golden Boot contenders and Sydney FC duo Joe Lolley and Adrian Segecic (eight).

Botic, who has tallied 14 goal contributions, is leading a new wave of young Aussie strikers while he benefits from the wisdom of Western boss and Socceroos legend John Aloisi.

“At the end of the day, if I get picked it’ll make me the happiest person in the world, because I’ve dreamed about this since I was 10 years old, when I first wanted to play professional football,” Botic told aleagues.com.au in a recent interview.

“Obviously it’s kind of a good little period that I’m in now. We don’t have many strikers, so it makes it easier for myself, and then obviously some other boys doing well, like Archie Goodwin and Thomas Waddingham, now just moving over to Portsmouth.

Western United will face Wellington Phoenix, Newcastle Jets, Perth Glory, Western Sydney Wanderers, Brisbane Roar, Sydney FC and Auckland FC in their remaining fixtures.

Botic, though, has a number of A-Leagues stars hot on his tail.

Joey Lolley (Sydney FC)

Sydney FC’s star Englishman Joe Lolley has enjoyed another fine season with the Sky Blues, scoring nine league goals from an xG of 7.0.

The 32-year-old has further enhanced his standing as one of the club’s finest imports, with the former Nottingham Forest attacker adding six assists to lead the way with 15 goal contributions across the Isuzu UTE A-League.

With Sydney fighting hard to qualify for the Finals, you can almost count on Lolley to deliver goals when needed.

Among the top seven goalscorers this season, Lolley has the best total carry distance (2,887), most opposition box take-ons (15) and most opposition half take-ons (17). Like Botic, the import is lethal in the box with nine goals inside the penalty area, which is the most alongside his Western counterpart.

While Sydney also juggle their AFC Champions League Two commitments, Lolley will have the chance to add to his tally against Wellington Phoenix, Melbourne City – who the Sky Blues face twice before the end of the regular season – Adelaide United, Auckland FC, Newcastle Jets and Western United.

“There are some players that come from the UK that you go this is sort of like you’ve come to us to have a bit of sun and have a nice time. But he’s made a real life choice there, and he is a really talented player,” A-Leagues Download host Max Rushden said earlier this season.

A-Leagues great Archie Thompson added: “He’s incredible.

“I think Sydney FC when they do attract, I think of (Adam) Le Fondre. When he came he was so exciting for Sydney FC and scored loads of goals. You probably would say that he could easily have just stayed longer, I think he was in the Championship at the time.

“Sometimes it’s just maybe as a footballer you want to look at different experiences, maybe an opportunity to go over to a country where it’s great weather. You’re probably thinking that too, football be okay, I can have a bit of longevity possibly. You might have been offered a good contract.

Then there are five players level on eight goals – Sydney FC pair Adrian Segecic and Patryk Klimala, Adelaide United young gun Archie Goodwin and Western United veteran Hiroshi Ibusuki.

Adrian Segecic (Sydney FC)

A standout among those listed players is super-sub Segecic.

In a squad stacked with attacking talent like Lolley, Klimala and Douglas Costa, the 20-year-old has been used predominantly off the bench but it has worked a treat. Of his eight league goals this term, six have come as a substitute with an xG of just 3.9 across 845 minutes of action.

Segecic also has the best big chance conversion rate (62%) among the top seven scorers in the Isuzu UTE A-League in 2024-25.

“Going overseas and getting a lot of games, every three or four days, and building confidence, building experience,” Segecic reflected to aleagues.com.au last month.

“I’ve never felt so confident and free stepping onto the field like I have in the recent games. That’s a massive thing for me.”

Archie Goodwin (Adelaide United)

Meanwhule, Goodwin is spearheading Adelaide’s charge in 2024-25 as the Reds eye the top two berth.

The 20-year-old is one of the most highly-rated talents in the Isuzu UTE A-League but injuries have delayed his rise, until now. In his first season with Adelaide, he’s scored a career-best eight goals.

Goodwin – who has the second most goals from fast breaks (two) this term – has already surpassed the seven goals he scored during his 44 appearances at boyhood club Newcastle Jets; he has also catapulted his name into the Socceroos conversation.

Adelaide boss Carl Veart has already dubbed the “natural number nine” as a “15-20-goal season striker”.

“I believe myself I can score 15-20 goals a year,” Goodwin told aleagues.com.au this season.

Goodwin and the Reds take on Brisbane Roar (twice), Macarthur Bulls, Melbourne Victory, Sydney FC, Perth Glory, Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City before the Finals Series.

Nicolas Milanovic (Western Sydney Wanderers)

As for Milanovic, the 23-year-old Socceroos hopeful is producing another impressive campaign after turning down interest from abroad to re-sign with the Wanderers at the start of 2024-25.

The most valuable Isuzu UTE A-League youngster on the current market according to retired Socceroo and former A-Leagues star Tommy Oar, Milanovic has built on his breakout season last term which saw him score a career-high nine goals in 25 matches. He is on track to surpass that amount through 18 appearances this season.

He has outperformed his xG (5.0) under Alen Stajcic in 2024-25.

“I think he has so much more in him,” Stajcic said in his press conference in Round 6.

“He has unlimited potential. He is still a young player and growing into the game but his potential is unlimited.”

The Wanderers meet Melbourne Victory, Wellington Phoenix, Auckland FC, Western United, Melbourne City, Newcastle Jets and Macarthur Bulls to close out the regular season.

Hiroshi Ibusuki (Western United)

Ibusuki has helped take Western team-mate Botic’s game to a new level in Tarneit, but do not rule out the towering Japanese striker from making a Golden Boot run of his own.

The 34-year-old finished fourth in the Golden Boot race last season thanks to his career-best 15 goals for Adelaide behind Taggart, and he is showing no signs of slowing down at new club Western.

A big presence up front with a soft touch and the ability to bring others into the game, Ibusuki has been a regular source of goals – scoring 36 goals since arriving in Australia in 2021-22.

Patryk Klimala (Sydney FC)

Another experienced foreigner in the Golden Boot mix is former Celtic striker Klimala, who is on loan from Polish top-flight outfit Slask Wroclaw.

It has been a strong debut season for the 26-year-old, who has eight goals from his 8.2 xG, including three in his last five. The ex-New York Red Bulls frontman also has 10 goal contributions as Ufuk Talay contend domestically and on the continent.

Taggart, Auckland trio Guillermo MayLogan Rogerson, Neyder Moreno, Wellington Phoenix great Kosta Barbarouses and Western Sydney’s Zac Sapsord are next best with seven goals.

Neyder Moreno (Auckland FC)

But keep an eye on Auckland’s Colombian star Moreno.

The 28-year-old has come into his own for the history-making newcomers. In fact, Moreno has incredibly scored seven goals from an xG of just 1.5, so he is a player who knows how to make the most of his chances. It is the biggest differential between goals scored and xG among the players mentioned as he continues to outperform his Expected Goals.

Moreno also has the best shot conversion rate among those players mentioned above (35%), so keep an eye on the attacking midfielder.

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