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Cats-Lions in high stakes clash, can Pies inflict more pain on Suns?

ALL 18 clubs are back in action with the mid-season byes complete as familiar foes Geelong and Brisbane open round 17 in a clash that could shape the top-four race.

Sydney will be out to bounce back from a humbling defeat to the reigning premiers as it hosts the Western Bulldogs on Friday night, while Hawthorn and Melbourne meet for the first time in Launceston the next day.

An out-of-sorts Gold Coast welcomes Collingwood with both sides trying to stay in touch with the top six on Saturday, before North Melbourne aims to break through for a historic win at Adelaide Oval when it takes on Port Adelaide on Sunday.

Here is who and what to look out for across round 17 as well as a tip for each match.

Geelong v Brisbane, GMHBA Stadium
Thursday, July 2, 7.30pm AEST

What it means

Geelong (9-6) returns from a bye looking to get its campaign back on track after three defeats by a combined 14 points in the four matches before the break. The Cats could steal a march on the Lions in the race for a double chance with a victory at their home fortress this week, before a favourable run home that includes seven matches against sides currently sitting outside the top six.

Brisbane (9-6) sent a warning to the competition as it returned from a bye to blow away Sydney with the sort of controlled, defence-focused performance that has become a trademark in the second half of recent campaigns. The Lions now return to a venue where they broke a 21-year hoodoo last season for the first of only two remaining matches against sides currently sitting in the top half.

Zac Bailey celebrates with teammates after kicking a goal during the match between Brisbane and Sydney at the Gabba, in round 16, 2026. Picture: Getty Images

Game shapers

Sam De Koning has taken on the role as the Cats’ versatile tall with great poise while spending more time in the ruck and remaining solid in defence. The 25-year-old proved his worth around the ball with a career-high 11 clearances alongside 25 disposals and 16 hitouts a few weeks ago against the Crows, but will now be critical to containing the Lions’ tall timber as he reaches 100 matches.

Josh Dunkley adds balance to the Lions’ star-studded midfield with his commitment to shutting down the opposition’s prime movers as important as his ability to win his own ball. The 29-year-old helped limit the influence of Swans gun Isaac Heeney last week and will now turn his attention to restricting the Cats’ runners like Max Holmes and Bailey Smith in another captivating duel.

Early tip: Geelong by 11 points

Sydney v Western Bulldogs, SCG
Friday, July 3, 7.40pm AEST

What it means

Sydney (12-3) returned from a break to face a revitalised Brisbane but put in the sort of performance that sends alarm bells ringing as much for the cracks that were exposed as for the defeat. The better opposition sides have been able to clog up the corridor and open up the Swans on the rebound, while they have lost all three meetings against the other top-five teams even before they faced the red-hot Dockers.

The Western Bulldogs (9-6) got their campaign back on track with five wins from seven matches before a bye, and now return with an opportunity to make a huge statement against a shaky Sydney side. The Dogs are one of few visiting teams with a strong recent record on the Swans’ home turf after wins in the past two years, and have built on that away form with a 3-1 record outside Victoria this season.

Sydney players leave the field following the match between Brisbane and Sydney at the Gabba in round 16, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

Game shapers

Chad Warner did all that he could to drag the Swans back into the contest against the Lions as he gathered 28 disposals, eight clearances and seven tackles, and kicked four majors including a Coles Goal of the Year contender. The 25-year-old has hit a rich vein of form with an average 29 disposals and 10 goals over the past four matches to be the spark most likely to ignite the Swans on the run home.

Marcus Bontempelli is enjoying another top-shelf season as the Bulldogs captain lifts the side into the finals race, whether dominating in the midfield or as a threat while resting forward. The 30-year-old is averaging just under his career-high with 27.4 disposals, while also taking his chances for an equal personal best of 1.33 goals a game with 20 majors and only five behinds this season.

Early tip: Sydney by 17 points

West Coast v Adelaide, Optus Stadium
Friday, July 3, 6.10pm AWST

What it means

West Coast (4-11) gave up some of its recent gains as it let Carlton fly out of the blocks and conceded more than 100 points for the first time in a promising eight-week stretch. The Eagles were hammered by the Blues at stoppage, losing the clearance battle 48-34 and contested possessions 142-114, but now need to get back on the front foot for an ominous stretch of games against the Crows, Dogs, Lions and Dockers.

Adelaide (9-6) failed to bring the heat against Port Adelaide and paid the price with what looms as a costly defeat, especially after a run of three impressive victories. The Crows were humiliated by the Power’s onball brigade at the coalface as they lost the clearances 42-22, but can turn to an imposing record against the Eagles with seven consecutive wins in their meetings by an average 55 points.

Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty and Zac Taylor after Adelaide’s loss to Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in round 16, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

Game shapers

Bailey Williams has been one of the big beneficiaries of changes to the ruck rules as he makes the role his own in arguably the best of his seven seasons with the Eagles. The 26-year-old is averaging 26.73 hitouts as well as career-highs for 13.55 disposals and 5.1 clearances this year, while also remaining a useful target in attack as he reaches 100 matches.

Darcy Fogarty struggled to find momentum during an interrupted start to the season but sparked back to life while playing a lone hand in attack, even as the Crows wilted against the Power. The 26-year-old sharpshooter booted five goals to show that he is ready to again spread the Crows’ forward firepower as part of a one-two punch with spearhead Riley Thilthorpe.

Early tip: Adelaide by 22 points

Hawthorn v Melbourne, UTAS Stadium
Saturday, July 4, 1.15pm AEST

What it means

Hawthorn (10-1-4) tightened its grip on a double chance as it held Greater Western Sydney at arm’s length to claim a victory while a top-two spot comes into view. The Hawks have a favourable run to come but first need to turn around a poor record against the Demons with only two wins in the past 12 matches both coming last year, although this is the first time hosting them at their Launceston fortress.

Melbourne (9-6) returns from a bye hoping to have rediscovered its best form after a stretch of three defeats and wins over bottom-half sides Collingwood and Essendon since it staked a top-four claim with a victory over Hawthorn in round 10. The Demons will have to flip their form on the road in their first visit to Launceston after five losses in as many matches outside Victoria so far this season.

Mitch Lewis competes for the ball during the match between Hawthorn and Adelaide at UTAS Stadium in round 11, 2026. Picture: Getty Images

Game shapers

Cam Mackenzie has answered the call for the Hawks to add more depth to their onball brigade as he has averaged a career-high 21.2 disposals and lifted his impact on games in his fourth season. The 22-year-old impressed with 27 disposals, seven clearances and a goal against the Giants as the Hawks look to get the ball in his hands more to make the most of his classy kicking.

Tom Sparrow is enjoying a breakout season as he makes the most of being handed more midfield minutes, averaging career-highs for disposals (21.4) and  clearances (5.2) a game. The 26-year-old adds a defensive steel to the Demons’ on-ball brigade after first making his name as a high-pressure forward, while his signature is more and more sought-after as an unrestricted free agent.

Early tip: Hawthorn by eight points

Greater Western Sydney v Fremantle, Manuka Oval
Saturday, July 4, 1.35pm AEST

What it means

Greater Western Sydney (6-9) finals hopes are hanging by a thread after it was again cruelled by injury in a gallant defeat to Hawthorn. The undermanned Giants were outmuscled by the Hawks’ midfield, losing the clearances 54-30, but will have to find quick solutions to their problems in the engine room with the Dockers, Cats and Swans to come in their next four matches.

Fremantle (14-1) found a way to keep getting better as it thumped Gold Coast in what might have turned into a wet weather slog to clinch a club-record extending 14th win on the trot. The Dockers’ defence was already the most miserly in the competition but tightened the screw to only allow the Suns to kick three goals, and they have now put themselves in a position to rest players if needed on the run home.

Alex Pearce and Sean Darcy after round 16 between Fremantle and Gold Coast at Optus Stadium, June 28, 2026. Picture: Getty Images

Game shapers

Toby Greene has put a stuttering start to the season and lingering speculation over his future behind him with an emphatic return to form. The Giants skipper has shown no sign of having his focus on anything but trying to guide his side back into finals contention as he has averaged 20 disposals and booted 15 goals while back to playing on the edge over the past five matches.

Andrew Brayshaw has continued to evolve his game as one of the competition’s premier two-way runners while he works to limit the impact of the opposition’s more dangerous midfielders as much as join the Dockers’ attacks. The 26-year-old remains a ball magnet whatever role he plays and is averaging 24.9 disposals while the Dockers’ engine room benefits from greater depth.

Early tip: Fremantle by 19 points

Gold Coast v Collingwood, People First Stadium
Saturday, July 4, 4.15pm AEST

What it means

Gold Coast (7-8) slumped to a fifth consecutive defeat that might have been the worst of the lot as it failed to fire a shot in a horror show against Fremantle. The Suns’ fate remains in their own hands but without a dramatic form reversal they are at real risk of missing even the wildcard spots, especially with all of their remaining games against finals contenders.

Collingwood (7-1-7) did what it needed to do in a solid win against an undermanned Richmond as it hit 100 points for only the second time this season and climbed back into the top 10. The Magpies have little margin for error with the Crows away, Cats, Hawks and Lions still to come on the run home, leaving their next three matches against the Suns, Roos and Blues likely to shape their finals hopes.

Nick Daicos celebrates a goal in the match between Collingwood and Richmond at the MCG in round 16, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

Game shapers

Ben Long has found his place as a high-pressure forward since joining the Suns from the Saints at the end of 2022, going on to boot 90 goals in the past three seasons. The 28-year-old was one of several Suns to have little impact in their humiliating defeat to the Dockers, but with his competitive edge he can now be a key to the side turning around their form as he reaches 150 matches.

Nick Daicos has set the bar as high as anyone across his first five seasons but has lifted it to even greater heights across a six-match stretch where he has averaged 35 disposals and booted 12 goals. The Pies’ stand-in skipper outdid himself with 37 disposals, 14 scoring involvements and an equal career-high three goals against the Tigers to send a warning to the Suns of what could come next.

Early tip: Gold Coast by 14 points

Richmond v Carlton, MCG
Saturday, July 4, 7.35pm AEST

What it means

Richmond (2-13) did well to keep pace with Collingwood for three quarters but paid the price for letting down their guard during the second term when it was outscored six goals to one. The Tigers are still counting the cost of a lengthy injury list but have few excuses for the lack of intensity, with a combined 75 tackles across their past two matches compared to the opposition’s 117.

Carlton (7-8) has turned a nightmare start to the season into an unlikely finals dream as it extended its incredible run since interim coach Josh Fraser took charge to six wins with a victory over West Coast. The Blues have become one of the more watchable teams in the competition with their eye-catching ball movement and can now even up their win-loss record against the injury-ravaged Tigers.

Josh Fraser speaks to his players during the match between Carlton and West Coast at Marvel Stadium in round 16, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

Game shapers

Tim Taranto has shouldered much of the load of the Tigers’ rejuvenation as they regularly rely on him to lead the way alongside the next generation of midfielders. The 28-year-old also helps create opportunities for the young Tigers to grow with his versatility to play as a forward weapon, as shown by booting four goals against the Pies after being pushed out of the engine room.

Ollie Florent took time to get going in his first season with his second club but has since helped the Blues turn their fortunes around as they open up their game plan. The 27-year-old is a key link in the chain whether launching transitions from defence or delivering the ball inside the forward 50 as he reaches 200 matches after playing 184 times with the Swans.

Early tip: Carlton by 27 points

Essendon v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
Sunday, July 5, 3.15pm AEST

What it means

Essendon (1-14) rallied late to give an inaccurate North Melbourne a scare, but in the end was flattered by the score line in what became its fourth defeat in as many matches under interim coach Dean Solomon. The Bombers can take some positives from the way they fought out the game to the end but need to find more fluency in their ball movement if they are to boost their hopes for the future.

St Kilda (6-9) returns from a bye with much work to do if it is to justify last year’s spending spree by earning a finals place this season. The Saints have no excuse but to make a late charge for at least a wildcard spot with a favourable run home that starts with the bottom-placed Bombers, and also includes the Power, Roos, Tigers and out-of-sorts Suns, and requires no travel outside of Victoria.

Dean Solomon during the match between North Melbourne and Essendon at Marvel Stadium in round 16, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

Game shapers

Jordan Ridley was a shining light for the Bombers even as he gave a reminder of what they had missed while he gathered 23 disposals with 12 marks against the Kangaroos. The luckless 27-year-old would be a key piece of the Bombers’ defensive puzzle if he can stay fit though after only playing 23 matches in the past three seasons due to injury, doubts remain over his durability.

Callum Wilkie is enjoying another fine season as he climbs back into All-Australian consideration while holding the Saints’ backline together and becoming a key to turning defence into attack. The 30-year-old has claimed the third most intercept marks this season and his calm presence in the back half will be even more critical on the run home with classy half-back Jack Sinclair sidelined.

Early tip: St Kilda by 31 points

Port Adelaide v North Melbourne, Adelaide Oval
Sunday, July 5, 4.10pm ACST

What it means

Port Adelaide (5-10) made a huge statement and claimed its best win under first-year coach Josh Carr as it demolished Adelaide to put a heavy dent in its arch rivals’ top-four hopes. The Showdown victory was just reward for much of the Power’s efforts this season as shown by having a percentage of more than 100 and the fourth-tightest defence in the competition even while sitting 15th.

North Melbourne (8-7) has won three consecutive games in the same season for the first time in more than seven years after it outclassed Essendon, even while misfiring near goal. The Roos impressed with their ball movement despite failing to take their chances against the Bombers, but need to make the most of games against the Power, Pies, Demons and Saints before a horror final month.

Zak Butters and Connor Rozee with the Showdown trophy as they walk down into the rooms after the match between Port Adelaide and Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in round 16, 2026. Picture: AFL Photos

Game shapers

Nick Larkey has not always enjoyed the season he would have wanted in his first year as Kangaroos captain but showed glimpses of a return to form against the Bombers. The Roos spearhead made his presence felt around the ground and claimed an equal-season high six marks inside 50 but was unusually wayward in front of goal to finish with 1.5 heading into his 150th match this week.

Zak Butters was almost unstoppable as he delivered a performance for the ages to lead the Power to a stirring Showdown victory over the in-form Crows. The stand-in skipper gathered 37 disposals, 13 clearances and seven tackles to continue his fine season and brushes aside any speculation over his future, let alone commitment to Port.

Early tip: North Melbourne by four points

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